Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 13 at the 72

Cincinnati Bengals 24 – San Francisco 49ers 7

(6:21) 10-K.Huber punts 50 yards to SF 22, Center-46-C.Harris. 10-B.Ellington to SF 28 for 6 yards (28-T.Hill).

The Three Options

GO -2.27 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.67 EP
68% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 72, worth -4.14 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model