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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
San Francisco 49ers
4th & 1 at the 31
San Francisco 49ers 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 24
What Actually Happened
(10:16) 49-B.Miller left guard to CIN 29 for 2 yards (50-A.Hawk).
The Three Options
GO
+2.06 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.85 EP
- 36% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 31, worth -1.13 EP
KICK
+0.97 EP
- 68% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.25 EP
- 32% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 41, worth -1.68 EP
PUNT
-0.06 EP
- Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.06 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
