Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 10 at the 88

Cincinnati Bengals 24 – San Francisco 49ers 7

(12:05) 10-K.Huber punts 54 yards to SF 34, Center-46-C.Harris. 10-B.Ellington to SF 41 for 7 yards (33-R.Burkhead).

The Three Options

GO -2.91 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +0.57 EP
62% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 88, worth -5.06 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model