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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 3 at the 62

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(11:37) 10-K.Huber punts 62 yards to end zone, Center-46-C.Harris, Touchback. PENALTY on SF-54-R.Armstrong, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at SF 20.

The Three Options

GO -0.73 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.73 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 62, worth -3.73 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -1.04 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 21, worth -1.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP