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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 8 at the 46

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(10:01) 10-K.Huber punts 46 yards to end zone, Center-46-C.Harris, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.67 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.19 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 46, worth -2.89 EP
KICK -1.72 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -3.01 EP
PUNT -0.85 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 13, worth -0.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model