Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 8 at the 87

Buffalo Bills 17 – Washington Commanders 35

(5:22) 6-C.Schmidt punts 47 yards to WAS 40, Center-65-G.Sanborn, fair catch by 80-J.Crowder.

The Three Options

GO -2.54 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +0.72 EP
60% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 87, worth -4.74 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model