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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 6 at the 40

Buffalo Bills 0 – Washington Commanders 21

What Actually Happened

(5:35) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass short left to 14-S.Watkins to WAS 32 for 8 yards (47-Q.Dunbar).

The Three Options

GO +0.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.43 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 40, worth -2.01 EP
KICK -0.19 EP
  • 52% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.19 EP
  • 48% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.73 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model