Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 15 at the 96

Buffalo Bills 0 – Washington Commanders 21

What Actually Happened

(7:09) 6-C.Schmidt punts 34 yards to BUF 38, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 80-J.Crowder MUFFS catch, touched at BUF 38, RECOVERED by BUF-20-C.Graham at BUF 43. 20-C.Graham to BUF 43 for no gain (14-R.Grant).

The Three Options

GO -3.84 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.65 EP
68% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 96, worth -5.90 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (113 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model