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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 9 at the 10

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Philadelphia Eagles 3

What Actually Happened

(14:12) 7-C.Catanzaro 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-82-M.Leach, Holder-2-D.Butler.

The Three Options

GO +1.86 EP
Model's Pick
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.35 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 10, worth -0.17 EP
KICK +1.81 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 21, worth -0.96 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model