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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 4 at the 30

Philadelphia Eagles 17 – Arizona Cardinals 37

What Actually Happened

(8:22) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-S.Bradford pass incomplete short middle to 81-J.Matthews.

The Three Options

GO +1.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.33 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30, worth -1.45 EP
KICK +0.92 EP
  • 75% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 40, worth -1.92 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model