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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 1 at the 8

Philadelphia Eagles 10 – Arizona Cardinals 17

What Actually Happened

(:50) 24-R.Mathews right tackle to ARI 8 for no gain (20-D.Bucannon).

The Three Options

GO +3.49 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.48 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 8, worth +0.13 EP
KICK +2.35 EP
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.45 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.53 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model