Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 5 at the 80

Philadelphia Eagles 10 – Arizona Cardinals 10

What Actually Happened

(5:34) 8-D.Jones punts 53 yards to ARI 27, Center-46-J.Dorenbos. 21-P.Peterson to ARI 33 for 6 yards. FUMBLES, recovered by ARI-87-T.Niklas at ARI 33. 87-T.Niklas to ARI 33 for no gain (87-B.Celek).

The Three Options

GO -1.86 EP

45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +1.18 EP
55% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 80, worth -4.37 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model