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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 10 at the 53

Arizona Cardinals 10 – Philadelphia Eagles 10

What Actually Happened

(6:20) 2-D.Butler punts 38 yards to PHI 15, Center-82-M.Leach, fair catch by 43-D.Sproles.

The Three Options

GO -0.95 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.93 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 53, worth -3.00 EP
KICK -1.82 EP
  • 21% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.93 EP
  • 79% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -2.80 EP
PUNT -0.79 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 15, worth -0.79 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model