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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 6 at the 41

Washington Commanders 24 – Chicago Bears 21

What Actually Happened

(2:19) (Punt formation) 5-T.Way punts 41 yards to end zone, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +2.81 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 41, worth -1.38 EP
KICK +0.02 EP
  • 42% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.35 EP
  • 58% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -1.65 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 12, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP