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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 8 at the 39

Chicago Bears 21 – Washington Commanders 24

What Actually Happened

(6:29) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 31 yards to WAS 8, Center-48-P.Scales, downed by CHI-11-J.Bellamy.

The Three Options

GO +0.16 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.56 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 39, worth -1.62 EP
KICK -0.07 EP
  • 47% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.38 EP
  • 53% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 48, worth -2.26 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model