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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 4 at the 40

Washington Commanders 24 – Chicago Bears 21

What Actually Happened

(9:25) (Punt formation) 5-T.Way punts 34 yards to CHI 6, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 80-M.Mariani.

The Three Options

GO +0.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.37 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 40, worth -2.26 EP
KICK -0.91 EP
  • 44% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.60 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -2.93 EP
PUNT -0.93 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.93 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.08 EP