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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 2 at the 72

Chicago Bears 21 – Washington Commanders 24

What Actually Happened

(12:58) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 54 yards to WAS 18, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 80-J.Crowder.

The Three Options

GO -0.29 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +2.04 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 72, worth -4.00 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -0.52 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 30, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model