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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 4 at the 29

Washington Commanders 21 – Chicago Bears 21

What Actually Happened

(14:12) (Field Goal formation) 3-D.Hopkins 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +0.42 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.10 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 29, worth -2.18 EP
KICK +0.17 EP
What Happened
  • 73% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.25 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 39, worth -2.76 EP
PUNT -1.09 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -1.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model