Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 14 at the 55

Washington Commanders 14 – Chicago Bears 0

(7:34) (Punt formation) 5-T.Way punts 33 yards to CHI 22, Center-57-N.Sundberg, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.55 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.85 EP
74% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 55, worth -3.06 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model