4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 1 at the 10

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Seattle Seahawks 7

What Actually Happened

(13:42) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO +3.43 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.44 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 10, worth +0.04 EP
KICK +2.08 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.19 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 21, worth -0.73 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.35 EP