Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 10 at the 95

Seattle Seahawks 7 – Baltimore Ravens 0

(1:22) (Punt formation) 9-J.Ryan punts 47 yards to BAL 48, Center-49-C.Gresham. 81-K.Clay to SEA 42 for 10 yards (57-M.Morgan).

The Three Options

GO -3.42 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 85, worth +0.42 EP
61% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 95, worth -5.91 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (112 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model