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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 2 at the 10

Baltimore Ravens 6 – Seattle Seahawks 35

What Actually Happened

(4:50) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-J.Clausen pass incomplete short middle to 83-D.Brown [72-M.Bennett].

The Three Options

GO +2.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.28 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 10, worth -0.08 EP
KICK +2.34 EP
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.45 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 21, worth -0.52 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model