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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 6 at the 49

Baltimore Ravens 3 – Seattle Seahawks 7

What Actually Happened

(4:04) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 34 yards to SEA 15, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

The Three Options

GO -0.34 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.23 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -2.54 EP
KICK -1.10 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -2.56 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 14, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model