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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 10 at the 23

Los Angeles Chargers 3 – Kansas City Chiefs 10

What Actually Happened

(:20) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass deep right to 86-V.Brown to KC 1 for 22 yards (27-T.Branch; 22-M.Peters).

The Three Options

GO +0.78 EP
What Happened
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +3.11 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 23, worth -0.06 EP
KICK +2.42 EP
Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.94 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 33, worth -0.21 EP
PUNT +0.00 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth +0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.65 EP