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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 10 at the 39

Los Angeles Chargers 3 – Kansas City Chiefs 10

What Actually Happened

(:43) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass deep middle to 85-A.Gates to KC 23 for 16 yards (29-E.Berry) [91-T.Hali].

The Three Options

GO +0.23 EP
What Happened
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +2.53 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 39, worth -0.66 EP
KICK +0.78 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.76 EP
  • 54% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 48, worth -0.89 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.54 EP