4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 3 at the 45

Los Angeles Chargers 3 – Kansas City Chiefs 10

What Actually Happened

(1:17) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short left to 81-J.Herndon to KC 39 for 6 yards (21-S.Smith).

The Three Options

GO +0.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.00 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 45, worth -1.05 EP
KICK -0.06 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.58 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -1.20 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 12, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model