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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 8 at the 41

Kansas City Chiefs 10 – Los Angeles Chargers 3

What Actually Happened

(11:09) 2-D.Colquitt punts 41 yards to end zone, Center-41-J.Winchester, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.05 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.72 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 41, worth -2.00 EP
KICK -0.82 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.73 EP
PUNT -0.41 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP