Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 17 at the 73

Kansas City Chiefs 10 – Los Angeles Chargers 3

(2:22) 2-D.Colquitt punts 48 yards to LAC 25, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 81-J.Herndon.

The Three Options

GO -2.33 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.39 EP
72% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 73, worth -4.20 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model