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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 1 at the 12

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 10

What Actually Happened

(5:51) 2-J.Lambo 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-M.Scifres.

The Three Options

GO +3.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +5.08 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 12, worth -0.28 EP
KICK +1.90 EP
What Happened
  • 95% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 22, worth -0.97 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.13 EP