4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 7 at the 42

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(7:24) 5-M.Scifres punts 38 yards to KC 4, Center-47-M.Windt, downed by LAC-25-D.Stuckey.

The Three Options

GO +0.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.38 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 42, worth -1.58 EP
KICK -0.52 EP
  • 38% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 62% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -1.95 EP
PUNT -0.77 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 12, worth -0.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.86 EP