4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 2 at the 59

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(13:27) 5-M.Scifres punts 43 yards to KC 16, Center-47-M.Windt. 85-F.Hammond pushed ob at LAC 26 for 58 yards (5-M.Scifres). PENALTY on KC-20-S.Nelson, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 8 yards, enforced at KC 16.

The Three Options

GO -0.43 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +1.97 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 59, worth -3.54 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -1.22 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 18, worth -1.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.79 EP