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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 9 at the 9

Cincinnati Bengals 10 – Pittsburgh Steelers 26

What Actually Happened

(10:10) 2-M.Nugent 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO +1.63 EP
  • 30% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.95 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 9, worth -0.19 EP
KICK +1.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.01 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.91 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model