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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 9 at the 13

Pittsburgh Steelers 23 – Cincinnati Bengals 10

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 9-C.Boswell 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +1.53 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.90 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 13, worth -0.30 EP
KICK +1.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 23, worth -0.97 EP
PUNT -0.11 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model