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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 9 at the 72

Cincinnati Bengals 10 – Pittsburgh Steelers 23

What Actually Happened

(7:13) 10-K.Huber punts 48 yards to PIT 24, Center-46-C.Harris. 84-A.Brown to PIT 23 for -1 yards (26-J.Shaw).

The Three Options

GO -1.94 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.98 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 72, worth -4.23 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 30, worth -1.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model