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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 2 at the 90

Cincinnati Bengals 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 13

What Actually Happened

(1:14) 10-K.Huber punts 48 yards to PIT 42, Center-46-C.Harris. 84-A.Brown ran ob at PIT 46 for 4 yards (81-T.Kroft).

The Three Options

GO -1.88 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 88, worth -0.14 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 90, worth -4.98 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

PUNT -2.19 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 47, worth -2.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP