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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 4 at the 47

Pittsburgh Steelers 13 – Cincinnati Bengals 7

What Actually Happened

(2:33) 4-J.Berry punts 45 yards to CIN 2, Center-60-G.Warren, downed by PIT-88-D.Heyward-Bey.

The Three Options

GO +0.13 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.04 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 47, worth -2.40 EP
KICK -1.08 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.18 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.47 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 13, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.64 EP