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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 4 at the 52

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10 – New Orleans Saints 24

What Actually Happened

(10:00) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short left to 87-A.Seferian-Jenkins to NO 43 for 9 yards (39-B.Browner) [32-K.Vaccaro]. PENALTY on NO-32-K.Vaccaro, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at NO 43.

The Three Options

GO +0.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.72 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 52, worth -2.71 EP
KICK -1.92 EP
  • 16% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 84% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -2.66 EP
PUNT -0.65 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 15, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model