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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 6 at the 53

New Orleans Saints 24 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10

What Actually Happened

(13:09) (Punt formation) 6-T.Morstead punts 53 yards to end zone, Center-47-J.Drescher, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.57 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.82 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 53, worth -2.89 EP
KICK -2.06 EP
  • 14% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 86% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.74 EP
PUNT -0.78 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 15, worth -0.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model