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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 5 at the 75

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10 – New Orleans Saints 24

What Actually Happened

(:20) (Punt formation) 5-J.Schum punts 33 yards to NO 42, Center-48-A.DePaola. 31-J.Byrd to NO 43 for 1 yard (89-R.Shepard).

The Three Options

GO -1.46 EP
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.42 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 75, worth -4.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 32, worth -1.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model