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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 4 at the 5

New Orleans Saints 14 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7

What Actually Happened

(1:06) (Field Goal formation) 5-K.Forbath 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +2.73 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.39 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 5, worth +0.16 EP
KICK +2.27 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.35 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.62 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP