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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 3 at the 70

Minnesota Vikings 7 – Arizona Cardinals 10

What Actually Happened

(:29) 18-J.Locke punts 42 yards to ARI 28, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 21-P.Peterson.

The Three Options

GO -1.32 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.08 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 70, worth -3.98 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.33 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 28, worth -1.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model