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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 16 at the 29

Arizona Cardinals 20 – Minnesota Vikings 20

What Actually Happened

(1:28) 7-C.Catanzaro 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-82-M.Leach, Holder-2-D.Butler.

The Three Options

GO +0.25 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +3.51 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 29, worth -0.86 EP
KICK +1.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 77% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.37 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 39, worth -1.33 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model