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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 5 at the 5

Arizona Cardinals 17 – Minnesota Vikings 10

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 7-C.Catanzaro 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-82-M.Leach, Holder-2-D.Butler.

The Three Options

GO +2.73 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.29 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 5, worth +0.39 EP
KICK +2.28 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.35 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21, worth -0.56 EP
PUNT +0.11 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth +0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP