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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 15 at the 37

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(13:13) 6-J.Hekker punts 35 yards to DET 2, Center-44-J.McQuaide, downed by LA-34-C.Reynolds. Kick touched by #37 C.Bryant.

The Three Options

GO -0.31 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.57 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 37, worth -1.71 EP
KICK +0.51 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.35 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 46, worth -2.44 EP
PUNT +0.10 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth +0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.40 EP