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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 1 at the 75

Detroit Lions 0 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(3:15) 6-S.Martin punts 58 yards to LA 17, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 11-T.Austin to LA 27 for 10 yards (10-C.Fuller).

The Three Options

GO -0.81 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +0.73 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 75, worth -4.54 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.88 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 32, worth -1.88 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.07 EP