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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 3 at the 53

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(7:33) 6-J.Hekker punts 49 yards to DET 4, Center-44-J.McQuaide, downed by LA-37-C.Bryant.

The Three Options

GO +0.08 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +3.05 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 53, worth -2.70 EP
KICK -1.27 EP
  • 24% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.61 EP
  • 76% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -2.47 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 15, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model