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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 16 at the 77

Los Angeles Rams 7 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(12:08) 6-J.Hekker punts 49 yards to DET 28, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 15-G.Tate to DET 35 for 7 yards (24-E.Patterson).

The Three Options

GO -2.70 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +2.26 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 77, worth -4.39 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 34, worth -1.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model