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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 1 at the 51

Detroit Lions 0 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(8:46) 6-S.Martin punts 38 yards to LA 13, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 38-C.Davis MUFFS catch, and recovers at LA 13. 38-C.Davis to LA 17 for 4 yards (50-T.Lewis). DET-59-T.Whitehead was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO +0.86 EP
Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.60 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 51, worth -2.88 EP
KICK -1.60 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.88 EP
PUNT -0.82 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 14, worth -0.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.68 EP