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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 3 at the 58

Buffalo Bills 7 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

What Actually Happened

(4:36) 6-C.Schmidt punts 45 yards to PHI 13, Center-65-G.Sanborn, fair catch by 43-D.Sproles.

The Three Options

GO -0.69 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.73 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 58, worth -3.41 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -1.24 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 18, worth -1.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EP