Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 14 at the 84

Buffalo Bills 20 – Philadelphia Eagles 23

(2:26) 6-C.Schmidt punts 48 yards to PHI 36, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 43-D.Sproles to PHI 36 for no gain (81-M.Easley).

The Three Options

GO -2.65 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.26 EP
69% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 84, worth -4.41 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model